NRF Forecasts 0.5% Decline in U.S. Retail Sales for 2009

U.S. retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will decrease 0.5% from last year, the National Retail Federation said in its 2009 economic forecast released Tuesday. The NRF expects fourth quarter sales to improve 3.6 percent year-over-year, due to easy comparisons to last year as well as a strengthening economy.

According to its quarterly Retail Sales Outlook report, NRF sees more challenges ahead as consumers continue to shift their spending priorities.

“Shoppers will be seeking value and trading down to discount and off-price retailers in order to stretch their purchasing power,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells.”

The first half of the year will see a continuation of the weakness that was felt in most of 2008. First half sales are expected to decline 2.5 percent. There will be some improvement in the third quarter with sales decreasing 1.1 percent. As noted, fourth quarter sales are expected to improve 3.6 percent.