IDEX Online Research: September Jewelry Sales Momentum Slows in U.S.

U.S. jewelry and watch sales were up 5.7 percent in September versus the same month last year. While this is a solid gain, there are four major concerns about the fundamental underlying strength of demand for jewelry.

·        The sales increase in September was the smallest monthly sales gain in 2010. Total U.S. jewelry and watch sales were $4.0 billion, down from prior months’ sales levels of $4.1 to $4.4 billion for months without a major sales event.

·        Sales comparisons were relatively easy against September 2009, when sales rose by a modest 1.9 percent.

·        Specialty jewelers’ sales were down a modest 1.5 percent during the month of September 2010. Total sales were $1.9 billion, down from $2.1 billion for similar months without a major selling event. This is the first time since October 2009 that specialty jewelers’ sales have shown negative comparisons.

·        Jewelry sales showed smaller growth than aggregate total retail sales in the U.S. market. Thus, jewelry lost market share during the month of September.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Despite slowing momentum in September, the outlook for jewelry sales in the U.S. remains positive for the balance of 2010 and beyond.

·        The Fed has taken steps to make sure that the U.S. economy will not slip into a double-dip recession. Recent data relating both to unemployment and manufacturing suggest that there has been no further deterioration of those segments of the economy.

·        The latest preliminary government figures show that the U.S. jewelry market is on target to generate $63.1 billion in sales in 2010, down only modestly from its forecast of $63.3 billion last month. We believe that this will be revised to about $63.0 billion. This would represent a 2.1 percent gain over the prior record of $62.0 billion generated in 2007, and it is well ahead of last year’s $58.8 billion. This year’s forecast is based on nine months of data.

The full analysis of the jewelry prices at the producer level and the consumer level in the U.S. is available to IDEX Online Research subscribers and IDEX Online members here. Click here for more information on how to subscribe or become a member.