(IDEX Online) – Total U.S. jewelry and watch sales were $13.2 billion in December 2011, up a robust 12.5 percent from December 2010. Sales of jewelry and watches during the holiday season of 2011 were $19.0 billion, up 10.7 percent. Full year jewelry and watch sales reached a record $68.3 billion, up 11.0 percent from 2010 levels.

 

Specialty Jewelers’ Sales Recover in December

Specialty jewelers’ sales in the U.S. market rebounded sharply in December 2011, after a vey weak performance in November, according to the latest preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

 

After generating a modest sales gain of just 1.1 percent in November, specialty jewelers’ sales in December 2011 were up a solid 8.9 percent, based on preliminary figures.

 

However, despite this solid rebound in sales during December, specialty jewelers continued to battle two negative trends:

 

·         Specialty jewelers – retailers such as Kay and Tiffany whose primary business is selling jewelry ­– are losing market share to multi-line retailers such as Wal-Mart, Costco, J.C. Penney, and others. Multi-line retailers’ jewelry and watch sales surged by 15.4 percent in December.

 

·         December sales continue to be less important to jewelers since they represent a declining portion of annual sales. In 2011, they represented only 19.3 percent of a specialty jeweler’s annual sales; in contrast, December 2010 sales were 19.7 percent of annual sales. At one time, December sales represented 25 percent or more of a specialty jeweler’s annual sales.

 

The table below summarizes preliminary jewelry and watch sales for the U.S. market during December 2011.

 

Channel – December 2011 $ Bln Sales % Change Y/Y Total US Jewelry Sales * $13.2 +12.5% Specialty Jewelers’ Sales $5.7 +8.9% Jewelry & Watch Sales – All Other Merchants $7.4 +15.4% * May not add due to rounding.

 

 

Holiday Jewelry & Watch Sales Strong

Jewelry and watch sales were up 10.7 percent in the November-December holiday period in the U.S. market, far ahead of any credible forecasts. Consumers felt wealthier, and they were in the stores buying merchandise, including jewelry.

 

While most of this year’s sales gain was due to inflation – higher polished diamond and precious metals prices – the nearly 11 percent gain is real in this sense: it represents actual dollars that moved from shoppers’ wallets into jewelers’ cash registers.

 

The November-December holiday period is the most important selling event for specialty jewelers. Historically, this two-month period has represented just over one-third of annual sales, and – in many cases – all of a specialty jeweler’s annual profits.

 

The table below summarizes sales for the all-important 2011 holiday selling season of November and December.

 

 

Full Year 2011 Jewelry Sales Set Record

Total U.S. jewelry and watch sales reached $68.3 billion in 2011, a record level. This was well above 2010’s $61.4 billion, and it was notably above sales of $65.3 billion during the prior record year of 2007, just before the “Great Recession” began.

 

Both specialty jewelers and multi-line merchants who sell jewelry and watches reported sales that rose by double-digit levels. Specialty jewelers’ 2011 sales were up by 10.7 percent to $29.6 billion; multi-line retailers’ jewelry and watch sales rose by 11.2 percent to $38.7 billion, based on preliminary data.

 

The table below summarizes preliminary jewelry and watch sales data by major distribution channel in the U.S. market for 2011.

 

 

The table below summarizes preliminary jewelry and watch sales data by major product category in the U.S. market for 2011.

 

 

Outlook: Solid Demand for Jewelry & Watches in 2012 & Beyond

Our forecast for U.S. jewelry and watch sales calls for a “reversion to the mean” in 2012. With economic growth expected to accelerate modestly, we believe that jewelry sales will grow in the mid-single digit range – 6 percent or so. This assumes only modest inflation in prices of polished diamonds and precious metals.

 

Beyond 2012, we expect jewelry sales gains to remain in the mid-single digit range for another year or two, before the current economic cycle begins to age, and consumer demand slows. By mid-decade, we could see another mild recession.

 

All of our forecasts assume that there is no “system shock.”

 

 

More Detailed Sales Information Is Available*

Click here for more information on December 2011 jewelry retail sales.

 

Click here for more information on November-December 2011 holiday jewelry sales.

 

Click here for detailed information on the public companies’ November-December 2011 holiday jewelry performance.

 

Click here for more information on jewelry sales for the full year of 2011.

 

Click here for our jewelry sales outlook and forecast for 2012 and beyond.

 

*The full analysis is available to IDEX Online Research subscribers and IDEX Online members. Click here for more information on how to subscribe or become a member.