(IDEX Online News) – American shoppers continued their spending binge in the post-Christmas period: total jewelry sales advanced by a solid 9.2 percent in January 2013, based on the latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

 

There was even better news: specialty jewelers posted a robust 14.7 percent sales gain in the month. Other merchants who sell jewelry – mostly multi-line discounters – saw their jewelry sales decline slightly by just under one percent.

 

The graph below summarizes January 2013 jewelry sales trends, based on preliminary government data.

 

 

Several key factors helped drive solid consumer spending, including the following:

 

·        The American economy continues to post modest growth, and the leading economic indicators suggest that 2013 will be a good year for the U.S. economy.

 

·        Consumers feel more wealthy due to two factors:

 

o       The U.S. stock market continues to advance solidly, and most of the key indices are near or above pre-recession levels.

 

o       Home prices are on the rise.

 

·        Jewelers reported fewer merchandise returns in January. The value of returned merchandise is credited against sales, so when returns are high, net monthly revenues are lower.

 

·        Comparisons against January 2012’s sales gain of 7.3 percent were relatively difficult. This means that this year’s gains were “real.”

 

Outlook Brighter

Most forecasters are calling for moderate economic gains this year, despite a dysfunctional Congress and unrealistic budget cuts. Consumers’ wealth factor should continue to improve, with a rising stock market and higher home prices.

 

It is difficult to measure consumer buying intentions. Even the Consumer Confidence Index does not accurately measure consumers’ intention to purchase goods, despite claims by some of the mass media.

 

Because of the close correlation between jewelry demand and economic vitality, we believe that jewelry demand will be relatively strong in 2013. Our full forecast will be forthcoming shortly.