(IDEX Online) – After a sharp decline in October, global polished diamond prices recovered somewhat in November 2014, as the graph below illustrates. While the IDEX Index for polished diamond prices showed an improvement to 131.9 in November, it is still below the average of 133.5 for the first 11 months of 2014.

 

 

On a year-over-year basis, polished diamond prices in November 2014 were nearly flat compared with November 2013 levels, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

On a month-to-month basis – November 2014 versus October 2014 – polished diamond prices in November rose by 3.0 percent over October prices as can be seen in the graph below.  

 

 

While polished diamond prices showed a recovery in November – the IDEX Index stood at 131.9 last month – which is still far below the peak diamond Index figure of 146.7 achieved in July 2011, more than three years ago, as the table below illustrates.

 

 

On a daily basis, there was virtually no movement in polished diamond prices during November. The IDEX Index shows that prices on the first day of the month were 132.2, and at the end of the month, they remained flat at 132.2, as can be seen in the graph below.

 

 

All key sizes of polished diamonds posted higher prices in November, after a weak October, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

On a year-to-year comparison, – November 2014 versus November 2013 – polished diamond prices were mixed. Half-carat, three-carat, and four-carat polished diamonds posted stronger prices, but one-carat, one-and-one-half carat, and two-carat diamonds posted lower prices (see the graph below).

 

 

And on a month-to-month basis, prices of all key sizes of diamonds rose in November 2014, when compared with October 2014. It seems clear that there was an aberration in the polished diamond market during October which caused prices to dip.

 

 

Outlook

The all-important holiday selling season in the U.S. – November and December – is not starting well. Preliminary data from the government shows that sales of fine jewelry and fine watches dipped sharply in October. Sales data for prior months was revised downward significantly.

 

The Thanksgiving weekend produced an aggregate retail sales decline of around 5 percent, according to early reports. In part, this may be due to a sales shift to online merchants as well as earlier shopping by consumers. However, it does not bode well for the rest of the shopping period.

 

Our original sales forecast for fine jewelry and watches called for a gain of 4.0 to 4.5 percent for the 2014 holiday selling period. Last month, we revised our forecast to a gain of 4.0 percent. It now appears that this is too aggressive; we now believe that fine jewelry and fine watch sales will rise in the low-single digit range for the combined months of November-December 2014.