(IDEX Online News) – Jewelry demand in the US market during November 2014 remained weak: up 1.4 percent from 2013, according to the latest data from the US Commerce Department.

 

 

By category, fine jewelry sales rose by 1.5 percent, while fine watch sales increased by a more modest 0.9 percent in November 2014 versus November 2013.

 

Jewelry demand has been weak since mid-summer, and the current trend suggests that the final sales tally for the all-important 2014 November-December Holiday season will show only a modest gain. When compared to total US retail sales growth of +3 percent for all merchandise in November, jewelry sales lagged.

 

Specialty Jewelers’ Sales Extremely Weak in November

Specialty jewelers’ sales took a hard hit in November: down a dramatic 7.1 percent. Sales during the month were about $2.7 billion versus November 2013’s sales of $2.9 billion.

 

 

Specialty jewelers’ sales were on something of a roller coaster in 2014, with solid gains in February (Valentine’s Day) and May (Mother’s Day). Since mid-summer, specialty jewelers have reported slowing sales. Clearly, specialty jewelers – especially independents – have lost significant market share to multi-line merchants such as Wal-Mart, J.C. Penney and Costco who also sell jewelry.

 

We estimate that jewelry sales at multi-line merchants rose by nearly 8 percent in November, a striking contrast to specialty jewelers’ sales decline.

 

Sales by Category Inconsistent:

Jewelers’ sales by category were inconsistent in November: some reported solid gains in lower-priced fashion jewelry, while others reported that the pricy diamond category was strong. The same was true for branded jewelry: there was extreme variability in sales by jeweler.

 

2014 Jewelry Sales Forecast

However, it’s not all bad news. Despite a weak second half of 2014, US jewelry sales are expected to rise to a record $78.5 billion, up 2 percent from the prior year’s $76.9 billion. Specialty jewelers should post record sales of $33.8 billion in 2014, up 1.8 percent from 2013 sales of $33.2 billion.

 

2015 Jewelry Sales Outlook

Key economic factors are positive: gasoline prices are low and the job market is strong. While the World Bank has cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2015, the US is one of only a few geopolitical regions posting sustained, albeit restrained, growth. Still, we are cautious, and are forecasting a low single-digit jewelry sales gain for the US in 2015.