NRF Says Retail Sales to Increase 4.1% Over 2015

(IDEX Online News) – It may only be February, but the National Retail Federation is already predicting that retail industry sales will increase 4.1 percent over 2014 compared to 3.5 percent growth last year.

This would be the biggest annual growth since 2011 when retail sales increased 5.1 percent.

NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said that retailers are facing fewer obstacles than last year in terms of growth opportunities. “Retailers are optimistic about the potential that exists for healthy growth in retail sales and consumer engagement in 2015,” he said.

“While our outlook for the year ahead is positive, we aren’t quite out of the woods; in order to see continued momentum we need a commitment from our leaders in Washington to pass legislation that will encourage investment, create jobs and set us on the path towards sustained, long-term economic growth.”

“The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead,” added NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“While Americans are benefiting from a pickup in wages and jobs and gains in the US stock market, economic slack has been reduced. We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation.”

The NRF also estimates that GDP will increase between 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent over last year; growth in the labor market should average between 220,000-230,000 new jobs per month throughout the year and unemployment is expected to drop to 5 percent by year’s end.

In addition, the organization said that gains in equities and housing have boosted net worth to record levels, helping consumers feel more confident about household spending.

The January retail sales released by the NRF (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month and 3.7 unadjusted year-over-year. Today’s results confirm holiday sales growth of 4 percent.  

The US Commerce Department said that January retail sales decreased 0.8 percent over the previous month seasonally adjusted, and increased 3.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.