IDEX Online Research: April Polished Diamond Prices ‘Unsteady’

After a sharp decline late in 2014 and early 2015, global polished diamond prices rose in April, extending a trend which began in March.

 

·         The IDEX Index of Global Polished Diamond Prices averaged 131.1 during April, up from March’s average of 129.7, and well ahead of the year’s low of 123.7 in February. The IDEX Index is sales-weighted, so it reflects current market activity.

 

·         Polished diamond prices reached a daily IDEX index high of 133 on April 22, but settled back to 129.5 at the end of the month.

 

·         Polished diamond prices were more volatile than usual during April.

 

Polished Diamond Prices Back on Trend

After significant volatility during the third and fourth quarters of 2014 and early 2015, global polished diamond prices in April rose modestly, and settled at a level that is consistent with average prices during 2014.

 

The graph below illustrates long-term price trends for polished diamond prices.

 

 

The graph below shows the volatility of polished diamond prices during the second half of 2014 as well as the first two months of 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a month-to-month basis, global polished diamond prices were up very modestly in April, when compared to March, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While the monthly price comparisons were positive, global polished diamond prices were lower in April, when compared to the same month a year ago – April 2014 – as the graph below illustrates.  This is a worrisome trend, since this is the eighth consecutive month that polished diamond prices have been below the prior year’s level. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Diamond Prices Inconsistent During April

After relative stable prices for the first half of the month, global polished diamond prices moved higher just after mid-April, followed by a sharp decline around April 23. There was a small price rebound on April 25, followed by a downward trend in prices for the final few days of the month.

 

The graph below summarizes polished diamond prices on a daily basis during April 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices By Size Were Uneven

Not only were diamond prices somewhat unstable during April, but prices by size were inconsistent.

 

On a month-to-month basis – comparing prices in April 2015 to March 2015 – prices for some diamonds moved higher, some were flat, and a few moved lower, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a year-to-year basis, comparing prices during April 2015 to April 2014 – prices were also irregular. Prices of smaller diamonds – 2-carat and below – fell, while prices of diamonds 3-carats and above moved higher. The graph below illustrates the unusual year-to-year price trends for polished diamonds by size.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast:  Cloudy

At the recent AGS Conclave and the Smart Show in the US market, the talk was centered on the lack of diamond demand by the Millennial generation – young consumers who have ample money, but aren’t spending it on “stuff” including jewelry. As one writer summarized the situation: the diamond industry is running on fumes since most Millennials have never seen one of the famed – and highly effective – De Beers ads for diamonds. 

 

While the diamond supply appears to be dwindling, demand is waning due to less spending by Millennials as well as the lack of industry-wide promotions.  That’s a formula for flat to lower-prices long term.