Total sales of fine jewelry and fine watches in the US market rose by 3.5 percent in July, according to the latest data from the Department of Commerce.

 

Specialty jewelers, those merchants who derive a majority of their revenues from the sale of jewelry and watches, posted a 2.9 percent sales gain in July. Jewelry sales through multi-line merchants such as Wal-Mart, Costco and others rose by an estimated 3.9 percent during the period. The month of July is not particularly important for jewelry sales; it represents about 7 percent of the industry’s annual sales. There are no special sales occasions during the month.

 

The graph below summarizes the estimated sales gains in the US market during July by distribution channel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Department of Commerce also made some notable revisions to monthly sales for May and June. The preliminary government figures had shown either sales declines or very small gains for the total industry. Further, in contrast to total industry sales, specialty jewelers’ sales spiked in June, a number which we speculated would be revised downward. Indeed, several monthly sales numbers – both for specialty jewelers and the total US jewelry industry – were revised to show a smoother and more positive trend, while specialty jewelers’ June sales gains were revised to show a more modest increase, in line with results reported by our independent sample of jewelers’ sales.

 

The graph below shows revised monthly sales gains for the US fine jewelry and fine watch industry. Total sales for July were estimated to be in the range of $5.5 billion.

 

 

Specialty Jewelers Sales Show Gain

Specialty jewelers’ sales during July were an estimated $2.2 billion, a 2.9 percent gain over July 2014. The specialty jewelers in our sample continue to report fewer unit sales, but a gain in the average ticket driven by more diamond sales. Sales of fashion jewelry remain solid, though the sales gain of charms seems to have slowed.

 

The graph below summarizes monthly sales gains for specialty jewelers in the US market.

 

 

Industry & Specialty Jewelers’ Sales Tracking More Closely

When total jewelry industry sales and specialty jewelers’ sales are plotted on the same graph, the trends are much more similar than preliminary data had shown over the past few months. There is still some dichotomy in the results, but the numbers are much more believable now.

 

The graph below illustrates total jewelry industry sales and specialty jewelers’ monthly sales on the same graph.

 

 

Outlook – Cautiously Optimistic

It sounds trite: “cautiously optimistic.” But that’s an accurate description of our outlook for the US jewelry industry as it heads into the all-important fourth calendar quarter. Consumers have loosened their purse strings. Jewelers have adequate inventory, and there has been ample sales training. There are still some wild cards – commodities prices, political debates, currency shifts and others – but the mood of the American shopper seems more positive than it has been in several years.