Total sales of fine jewelry and watches in the US market rose by a strong 6.3 percent year-over-year, according to preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce. That improvement was above expectations, especially in light of more modest gains throughout most of 2015.

 

Further, the government’s jewelry sales data for December and the Holiday Selling Season (November-December) was revised upward, another positive sign.

 

Sales of fine jewelry and watches rose by a revised 4.6 percent, far above the preliminary 2.1 percent gain reported by the government last month. Holiday sales (November-December) advanced by a robust 4.4 percent, based on revised data. This was in excess of our forecast of low single-digit gain.

 

Total Jewelry Sales Up in January

Total January sales of fine jewelry and fine watches in the US were an estimated $4.8 billion, according to the latest preliminary data from the Department of Commerce. Jewelry sales were an estimated $4.2 billion, while watch sales were about $600 million.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Specialty jewelers, those merchants who derive a majority of their revenues from the sale of jewelry and watches, posted a very modest sales gain of 1.2 percent in January. Specialty jewelers’ sales represent just over 40 percent of total US jewelry sales.

 

Jewelry sales through multi-line merchants such as Wal-Mart, Costco, and others rose by an estimated 10.5 percent during the month of January. Jewelry sales through multi-line merchants represent just under 60 percent of total US jewelry sales, a number that has been growing for several decades.

 

Jewelry Demand Positive in January

Jewelry demand has continued to strengthen, especially in the past three months. In part, this is due to easy sales comparisons against last year’s very weak gains in the first half of the year. In part, consumers seem to be spending more freely on jewelry, now that the US economy appears to be growing – modestly, but consistently.

 

The graph below illustrates monthly jewelry sales growth since the beginning of 2015, on a year-to-year basis, of fine jewelry and fine watch sales in the US market. It is clear that jewelry sales gains are accelerating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fine jewelry sales (approximately 88 percent of the market) rose by an estimated 6.3 percent in January, while fine watch sales (approximately 12 percent of the market) were up by 6.4 percent.

 

In most months, fine jewelry and fine watch sales track fairly closely. However, as the graph below illustrates, fine jewelry sales (red bar) surged in December, while fine watch sales (blue bar) faltered. This was not surprising, since jewelry demand is more seasonal than fine watch demand; December jewelry sales represent almost 20 percent of the industry’s total sales in the US market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Specialty Jewelers’ Sales Gains Modest

Specialty jewelers’ sales rose by a modest 1.2 percent in January, based on preliminary data. This is in line with our sample of specialty jewelers who report their monthly sales to IDEX Research.

 

Specialty jewelers’ sales during January were an estimated $1.8 billion, a 1.2 percent increase over January 2015, as the graph below illustrates.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jewelry Capturing Market Share

When compared to total retail sales gains, sales of fine jewelry and watches have been very strong. Clearly, jewelry demand is taking share of wallet from other retail categories, as the graph below illustrates. Jewelry sales gains are represented by the red bar; total retail sales gains are represented by the green bar.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outlook – We Are Optimistic

The US jewelry industry has recently completed the all-important November-December period with solid gains above our expectations, based on revised data.  

 

Our preliminary sales forecast for the US jewelry industry for 2016 shows a gain of three-to-four percent for the full year, an upward revision from our earlier forecast of a gain of two-to-three percent.