The IDEX Polished Diamond Price Index - October 2019

(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Diamond Price Index showed a little movement in October, with prices rising slightly between the beginning and end of the month. 

The Index began the month at 120.40 and ended it at 120.97, rising less than 0.5%.

Diamond Prices Show Downward Trend in 2019

Following declines in 2017, prices strengthened in 2018. As 2019 draws to a close, prices have been falling but now appear to be stabilizing. As the fourth quarter gets underway, the Index stands at 120.73, as the graph below shows. 

On a month-over-month basis, global polished diamond prices in October did not change compared to September.

On a year-over-year basis, average prices in October declined 3.5 percent compared to October 2018. Prices seem to rise and fall on an annual basis with trends following a wave pattern of peaks and troughs so more months of downwards trends are to be expected, especially considering the strength of prices in 2018 compared to 2017. 

Given this yearly pattern, and given that the second and third quarters are traditionally less busy than the first and fourth quarters, September was probably the bottom of the "wave" and the market is already moving into a more positive mode. 

Diamond Prices By Size

On a month-over-month basis - October 2019 versus September 2019 - most size categories saw very few changes. The exception was the 4-carat category, which experienced an 8.8-percent fall in prices compared to the previous month. This volatility is much more common in the larger sizes than it is for the "bread and butter" categories and was not exceptional. 

There was much more volatility on an annual basis, even for the smaller, more common items. The 0.5-carat category saw 9.5-percent decline since October 2018, 3-carat stones declined 8.2 percent and 4-carat diamonds experienced a huge 32.2 percent drop in prices.

Over the longer term, the price of 4-carat stones have plunged since 2015. Other sizes have had much more stability, with prices rising and falling much more gently with the prices of 0.5-carat diamonds declining most notably over the past four years.

Outlook

While October was relatively quiet upstream because of the Jewish holidays and the Diwali festival and break, trade began to pick up in the mid-stream reflecting an uptick in retail sales as the holiday season approaches.

Diamond traders are hoping for strong trading in November and December, with demand expected from Europe and the United States ahead of the Christmas holiday, and also from the Far East ahead of the Chinese New Year. 

However, with Brexit uncertainty and a general feeling of unease creeping in - despite multiple predictions of decent holiday sales - there is still no way of knowing how 2019 will end.