U.S. Jewelry and Watch Rise Steadily in September

(IDEX Online) - It may be too early for retailers to celebrate a strong end to the year, but with total U.S. jewelry and watch sales up for the third month in a row, it's a good sign that 2019 will end much better than it started. 

Sales of fine jewelry and fine watches increased by 6 percent in the U.S. market in September compared to September 2018, as the graph below illustrates. Following a scant 1- and 2-percent rise in July and August, this 6-percent increase marks the strongest results year-over-year in 13 months. 

Specialty Market Growing Slowly

While total jewelry and watch sales climbed 6 percent in September, specialty jewelers' sales surpassed the 7 percent mark. This time last year, sales at specialty jewelers had slumped into the red with sales posting a 1.2-percent decline.

The graph below summarizes sales trends for specialty jewelers since the beginning of 2017. With the third month of successive gains in specialty sales, this could be the start of an upward swing of the type last seen at the start of 2018. 

Specialty Jewelers Winning Market Share

As the graph below shows, specialty jewelers once again recorded a small rise in sales compared to non-specialty retailers in September. This trend looked unlikely just a few months ago given successive months of specialty jewelers floundering compared to their non-specialty counterparts. 

Watch Sales Outpace Jewelry Sales

Despite fine jewelry clawing back sales, they continue to be outpaced by watch sales, and September was no exception. By category, fine jewelry sales were up 5.9 percent in the month. Fine watch sales, however, rose by 6.6 percent. 

Outlook

With the all-import Thanksgiving shopping weekend that kicks off the holiday shopping period almost upon us, there are high hopes for a strong finish to the year. Every holiday survey is predicting positive gains that should have retailers feeling positive. However, there are indicators that not all is well. 

The OECD says the global outlook is unstable. World GDP growth fell to 2.9 percent this year - its lowest rate since the financial crisis - and is expected to remain stuck at 3 percent over the next two years.

Adding to the gloom, the organization says global trade is stagnating and is dragging down economic activity in almost all major economies. "Policy uncertainty is undermining investment and future jobs and incomes. Risks of even weaker growth remain high, including from an escalation of trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and climate change." 

But that's in the future. For the moment, retailers should enjoy what seems to be the start of a meaningful improvement as consumers loosen their purse strings and return to buying jewelry in earnest.