US Watches and Jewelry: Sales Keep on Surging
December 24, 20
(IDEX Online) - The recovery in sales of US watch and jewelry continues, with a fifth consecutive month of year-on-year increases.
October's 18.6 per cent rise was another record high. The jump from September appears at first more modest than recent monthly increases, a possible indication that sales are finding their level, but it's likely the figure will be revised upwards, in line with recent months.
The April plunge that overshadowed that of the 1929 Wall Street Crash - when the global pandemic first hit - now seems but a distant memory.
The graph below includes revised Dept of Commerce figures, based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. September sales, originally reckoned at 13.7 per cent, are now reported to be 16.8 per cent. August is also up from 12.4 per cent to 13.8 per cent.
Specialty Jewelers
Sales have been recovering in recent months but we have no new data since last month's update. The Department of Commerce has not released its own specialty jewelers' data since January 2020.
IDEX Online is providing quarterly best estimates based on reliable and consistent performance data from Signet, Tiffany, and Movado, representing almost a quarter of the total specialty jewelers' retail sales in America. Last month we reported September sales up 7.0 per cent on the same month in 2019 and August up 5.0 per cent. We'll provide our next estimates early next year.
Sales of Jewelry and Watches
Sales of all jewelry were up 19.1 per cent in October, year-on-year, and watch sales were up 16.3 per cent as the recovery gathers pace. Both are the highest monthly rises for at least four years. Sales of both watches and jewelry have been growing steadily since July. Increases for September have been revised up from last month, based on actual rather than estimated sales. Jewelry sales rose 17.2 per cent (rather 14.1 per cent) in the month and watches were up 14.9 per cent (rather than 12.0 per cent).
Jewelry and Watch Sales vs Specialty Jewelers
Sales by specialty jewelers have been recovering from the pandemic more slowly than the jewelry sector in general. In August and September they were, respectively, up five and seven per cent on the same month last year, according to our own best estimates. It's a fair guess that they will carry on increasing, but at a slower rate. The overall increase for all US watch and jewelry sales, as noted above, for November, was 18.6 per cent.
Outlook
An overall increase of 18.6 per cent in watch and jewelry sales would be headline news in "normal" times, but normal seems like a distant memory. The industry is still finding its level after the biggest blow in living memory. The graphs indicate a clear trend, with every one of the last five months racking up bigger increases than the last. But Covid still casts a dark shadow, as illustrated by Swiss watchmakers. They reported a sales surge of almost 70 per cent last month in China, which has beaten the virus (double digit daily cases among 1.4bn people) but revenue was down in the USA and most European markets that are still battling the pandemic.