Growth in US Watch and Jewelry Sales Hits Two-Year Low

(IDEX Online) - The growth in sales of US jewelry and watches hit a two-year low in August, at just 3.7 per cent.  That's according to the Department of Commerce, but it will likely be revised next month. The July figure, originally reported as 10.2 per cent - a significant rise on 5.3 per cent in June - has now been revised down to 5.9 per cent, based on actual through-the-till transactions rather than estimates. At the time we suggested that the apparent jump in July needed to be treated with caution.

A whole raft of revisions has also been made by the BEA (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) for sales dating back as far as 2017.  Every figure for sales growth since August 2019 has been revised down. Overall sales growth for the year 2020 is now recorded as five per cent less than originally reported, and the 2021 growth figure is eight per cent less. 

Jewelry sales rose by 3.9 per cent and watch sales were up 3.6 per cent during August, an average increase of 3.7 per cent.

 The U.S. Department of Commerce has, for all practical purposes, ceased reporting sales by Specialty Jewelers. The last figures it released were for February 2021. In May it published its first set of revisions in almost a year - revising down sales for virtually all months from January 2019 to February 2021 - but we've heard nothing since.  IDEX Research will publish any new updates on specialty jewelers as and when they become available.

Assessment

The growth in sales has been depressed for many months now and shows no sign of improving. The last four monthly reports have all been under six per cent and August, at 3.7 per cent, is the lowest in a bad run. The last time we saw negative growth was in May 2020, as the effects of the first Covid lockdowns kicked in. August's figure could well be revised down, and unless the global crisis is suddenly resolved it's entirely possible that September will slip below zero.