(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Price Index continued its near-straight line decline for a seventh consecutive month in October. It fell by 1.86 per cent, slightly less than September's 2.34 per cent, but still the second biggest drop since April. The Index started falling early in March. It was down 2.1 per cent in April, 0.69 per cent in May, 1.18 per cent in June and 2.05 per cent in July. January and February, by comparison, showed sharp increases, up by 5.67 per cent and 4.14 per cent respectively. 

 

 

The longer-term graph below shows the Index in continuing decline since it peaked in March of this year. Its average value through October was 137.56. The figure for September was 140.94, compared with 144.02 in August. In July it was 147.59, down from June (150.01), May (151.28) and April (153.30) The Index had been in decline since mid-2018, but at a much more gradual pace. It hit a low point in April 2020, with the first lockdowns hit, but the overall trend since then had been upwards.

 

 

 

 

Month-to-month diamond prices fell 2.4 per cent in October, one of the biggest drops in recent years. August also saw a 2.4 per cent fall. September saw a marginal improvement, to 2.1 per cent.  They fell 1.6 per cent in July and 0.8 per cent in June. Monthly price increases peaked in February, before Russia invaded Ukraine, at 6.2 per cent and have been in negative growth since April.

 

Year-to-year polished diamond prices showed slower growth for a seventh consecutive month in October. At 5.4 per cent it was the lowest figure so far of 2022.  Growth has been steadily slowing each month since it peaked in March of this year at 27.9 per cent. The figure for September was 7.8 percent, August was 10.0 per cent, July was 13.7 per cent, down from 17.5 per cent in June and 21.1 per cent in May. The overall trend had been upwards since the depths of the pandemic in April 2020, albeit with a dip last September and October.

 

 

Polished month-on-month prices for almost all key sizes shown below fell in October. The sole exception were the 4.0-cts "investor goods", which turned the previous month's loss of 1.3 per cent into a 1.0 per cent gain. That aside, October's losses were very similar to those in September.

 

 

The increase in year-on-year polished prices slowed again during October, again with the notable exception of 4.0-cts goods. Worst-hit were 0.5-cts, where prices dropped 5.5 per cent, down from 3.7 per cent in September. All other sizes maintained an increase, though less than in September. As mentioned, 4.0-cts bucked the trend, turning a 2.6 per cent loss in September into a 3.9 per cent gain.

 

 

Prices for all sizes shown below kept on falling in October, except for 4.0-cts goods. It remains the most sustained period of decline in recent years.

 

 

Assessment: The IDEX Polished Price Index continues its decline. None of the other metrics above provide cause for much optimism in the short term, as weak consumer demand and high interest rates persist. Month-to-month polished prices showed a glimmer of improvement in September, but fell back in October to August's record low level.  0.5-cts are faring worst, 4.0-cts are doing best, relatively speaking.

 

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