IDEX Polished Price Index: The Recovery Starts Here
December 05, 23
(IDEX Online) - After more than 18 months of relentless decline, the IDEX Polished Price Index finally showed its first increase with a hike of 1.06 per cent in November. The industry could be witnessing the first green shoots of recovery. The holiday season is driving an increase in consumer demand, which is pushing prices up prices at last.
India's voluntary ban on rough imports, an upstream squeeze, ongoing flexibility from miners and a pre-Diwali rush are also contributing to the long-awaited bounce. During the month 0.5-cts and 3.0-cts rose by 2.0 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively, reversing a long trend of decline since March 2022 and indicating that prices may have reached their low point and be on the way up. November's rise follows a fall of 1.6 per cent in October, down from just over 3 per cent in September, which was the single biggest monthly drop of the current crisis.
The Index's steady decline has come to a halt with the first increase since February 2022. It climbed throughout 2021 as lockdowns diverted luxury spending away from travel towards jewelry but had been down month-on-month since the Covid bubble burst and Russia invaded Ukraine.
Month-to-month prices fell during November, but by just 0.1 per cent - a further indication that we may be turning a corner. By comparison, it was averaging 2.75 per cent from July to October.
Year-on-year prices showed a slight improvement, although there will inevitably be a lag before the effects of any recovery become evident. November prices were down 19.9 per cent, compared with 21.6 per cent in October.
There was a mixed picture in month-on-month prices during the November, with notable increases for 0.5-cts and 3.0-cts, balanced by drops for 4.0-cts and 5.0-cts. In October all sizes shown, except for 5.0-cts, fell by more than 2 per cent.
Year-on-year price drops in November closely mirrored those of October, with slightly smaller drops for each of the sizes shown. Generally speaking, smaller goods have been suffering much bigger losses.
Prices for most sizes shown have started to level off after an extended period of decline, although there were falls for 4.0-cts and 5.0-cts.
