IDEX Polished Price Index Falls Back Slightly

(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Price Index dipped very slightly during January (down by 0.27 per cent) following on from a 1.9 per cent rise in December. The change of direction, after a long post-Covid decline, reflects a confusion and uncertainty that seems to pervade the industry at present. 

The market appeared to be showing some early signs of a recovery as 2023 came to an end. What's happened over the last few weeks could simply mean it's briefly stalled ahead of Valentine's Day - or has gone into reverse again after the excitement of the holiday season. India's two-month moratorium on rough purchases did jump-start the market, to some extent, but may not have a lasting impact. Ditto Alrosa's two-month voluntary halt on sales. De Beers' sales picked up in January ($370m) from a very low base, with the company warning of a long and slow recovery.

In addition, caution persists over the newly-introduced sanctions on Russian goods and what impact they'll have. Bear in mind that they'll be become tougher over the coming months. The lab grown market is another area of uncertainty, with prices hitting an all-time low.

The long-awaited bounce has flattened somewhat. The Index hit a 20-year high in 2022, and had been in long-term decline, as seen in the graph below.

Month-to-month prices were up by 0.4 per cent in January, only the second rise since March 2020. Prices were up 1.9 per cent during December, having slipped by around 3 per cent every month since July 2023.

Year-to-year prices are showing gradual signs of recovery. They're still negative and look likely to remain so for many months. But there have been month on month improvements since they hit a low point in October, down 21.6 per cent. The figure for January is -15.7 per cent.

There were modest improvements - nothing more than 1 per cent - in most month-to-month prices. There were also a couple of falls, notably 3.0-cts, which were down by 1 per cent. By comparison, during December all sizes shown saw increases, with a 2.9 per cent rise.

Year-to-year prices were down again in January. It was a very similar picture to November, except that price drops for 2.0-cts and below were slightly smaller, while those for 3.0-cts took 5.0-cts were slightly larger. 

Prices for most sizes shown (except 0.50-cts and 3.0-cts) increased during January. In December prices increased for all sizes