IDEX Polished Price Index: The Decline Slows in April
May 02, 24
(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Price Index slipped marginally in April. The trend remains downwards, but the decline during the month was a modest 0.59 per cent, compared with 1.52 per cent in March. It's too early to talk about a recovery, but a combination of factors appear to be pushing up prices.
Lab grown prices are still crashing. They have yet to reach rock bottom, according to many analysts, but are becoming less attractive to retail jewelers. In addition the G7 sanctions on Russia have effectively put a third of the world's diamond supply off limits. Alrosa, the state-run miner is being forced to offload some of its unsellable goods to the Gokhran, the state-run repository of precious stones and metals.
And De Beers, now controlling the majority of the market again, is producing less and selling less. Output during the first quarter of 2024 was down by 23 per cent, the annual forecast is down 10 per cent and sales at is sights and auctions are down on last year. This squeeze on supply, together with an end of the lab grown boom, creates the opportunity for price recovery.
There are, however, a number of unknowns. The future of De Beers, currently loss-making is uncertain, especially following last week's bid by mining giant BHP to buy its parent company Anglo American. And there is another phase of sanctions on the horizon, outlawing all Russian goods of 0.50-cts or above (current threshold is 1.0-cts).
The Index is still falling after a slight bounce last November and December. But as the graph below shows, the rate of decline now appears to be slowing. It hit a 20-year high in 2022 and has since falling more or less ever since.
Month-to-month prices were down by 1.3 per cent during April, compared with 0.8 per cent in March, 0.5 per cent in February and a rise of 0.4 per cent in January. Prices fell consistently from April 2022 to October 2023.
Year-to-year prices fell 15.0 per cent in April, largely in line with the previous three months. They were down 15.7 per cent in March, 15.3 per cent in February and 15.7 per cent in January.
Month-to-month prices for most sizes shown below fell during April. The exceptions were 5.0-cts, which rose 2.3 per cent compared with a 2.0 per cent fall in March. And 0.5-cts, which were up 0.2 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in March. The biggest losses by far were among 4.0-cts, down by 4.5 per cent.
Year-to-year prices again fell across the board in April, as they have done for many months. For most goods the falls were slightly less than in March, except for 3.0-cts and 4.0-cts.
Prices for goods of all sizes shown below fell during April, except for 0.50-cts and 5.0-cts.
