IDEX Polished Price Index Shows Signs of Stabilizing

(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Price Index showed further signs of stabilizing in October, as it declined by just 0.81 per cent. That's a slight improvement on September's 0.96 per cent drop, and significantly better than falls of 3.12 per cent in August and 1.36 per cent in September.

Demand remains weak, but natural diamonds are in relatively short supply, which is slowing the drop in prices.

Last week Debswana - the joint venture between De Beers and the Botswana government - announced rough sales were down by 52 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024.

India's polished exports were down by over 20 per cent in the six months from April to September and closures over Diwali will further squeeze supplies, with a knock-on effect on prices.

The Index has been declining every month of 2024. January and February saw the smallest drops - down 0.27 per cent and 0.30 per cent respectively.

But in spite of the ongoing issues of China (still no recovery) and lab growns (still increasing market share) sentiment does appear to be improving and the holiday period could feasibly push the IDEX Polished Price Index into growth during November.

 The Index remains in overall decline, although that decline is slowing. In August the Index dipped below the 100 mark for the first time since its inception in July 2004, which means prices are now lower than they were 20 years ago. The Index peaked in early 2022 but the trend has been downwards ever since.

Month-to-month prices were down by 1.3 per cent in October, compared with 2.2 per cent in September. In July prices fell 3.1 per cent, by far the biggest fall of 2024. Prices have fallen every month this year except for a very slight rise in January.

Year-to-year prices for October were down by 10.7 per cent. That's the lowest monthly drop since February 2023 (-14.7 per cent). The rate of decline has been slowing since prices suffered their biggest monthly fall in October 2023.

Month-to-month prices are still falling, but by less than they were in September. 0.5-cts were down by 2.5 per cent, compared to 5.1 per cent the previous month. And there was a slight increase for 4.0-cts goods. In September, by comparison, prices fell for all sizes shown below. 

Year-to-year prices for October showed some signs of stabilizing. Goods of all sizes shown below, except 5.0-cts, saw slightly smaller price drops than they did in September. 4.0-cts, which fell by 17.4 per cent in September, were down 9.9 per cent in October.

 The general trend remains downwards, as it has since mid-2021. As the graph below shows, prices for goods of all sizes shown below fell during October, except for a marginal increase in 4.0-cts goods.