Forecast: 3.5% Growth in 2008 U.S. Retail Sales
January 14, 08
U.S. retail industry sales will increase 3.5 percent from last year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Monday in its 2008 economic forecast. According to its quarterly Retail Sales Outlook report, the NRF expects the slow pace in sales growth to continue before picking up in the second half of the year. The forecast exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurant sales. “Consumers will be under financial stress from high energy costs, the fallout from the housing slump, and sluggish employment and income growth,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “Shoppers will seek to pay down debt, spend more in line with income growth and approach discretionary purchases with more restraint.” While the outlook is somewhat reserved, Wells expects sluggish first half sales to eventually give way to stronger sales in the third and fourth quarters. The NRF expects industry sales to increase 3.2 percent in the first half of the year, followed by a 3.8 percent increase in the second half as economic conditions improve. “Even areas of past high growth like luxury goods and online shopping will feel the pressure,” said Wells. “In 2008, the challenges will be formidable for everyone.”