Listening To the Wind of Change

Everybody from Morocco in the west to Iran in the east is closely following the quickly changing face of the Arab world. Most of the swift political changes are in North Africa, the Maghreb, but the shockwaves are well felt in other parts of the region as well. Further up north, in Europe, the concerns are not only for the human costs of the revolutions, but also focus on fears of mass migrations from crumbling countries as well as rising oil prices.

In the Gulf region, eyeing Bahrain and Yemen, the fear of a Shiite takeover from Sunni rulers is stoking predictions that an Iranian led political agenda will rule the region. The backwind that uprisings in West-leaning dictatorships got from the U.S. is not provided to opposition forces in other dictatorships in the region, giving further concern that we are only seeing the start of a storm that may end in a number of years.

The common denominator in the countries where the revolutions are moving far ahead is the age of the ruler. In Tunisia, Egypt and soon to join Libya, the uprisings were against old and frail rulers.

We know another such ruler, further south, that fits the bill. Robert Mugabe, 87 years old, decades in the top seat, and apparently ill (some reports claim he is cancer stricken), is concerned that the poor masses of his country will get some inspiration from the current events in the Muslim world. He already cracked down on a meeting titled 'Revolt in Egypt and Tunisia: What lessons can be learnt by Zimbabwe and Africa?' which resulted in the arrest of 46 people that have been charged with treason.

There are other connections, such as reports that mercenaries from Zimbabwe are helping Gaddafi protect his regime, allegedly shooting protesters and army deserters. Of course, there are reports of stashed diamonds, among other valuables, held by the corrupt leaders, maybe to help in the kind of rainy day they have in fact just encountered.

In Zimbabwe, a country ruled by the same means as Tunisia, Yemen and Libya – extreme violence, fear, and fixed elections – one brave soul stood up this week. Finance Minister Tendai Biti called for an audit of Zimbabwe’s diamond sales after some $100 million in revenues have reportedly disappear.

Asking "where is the beef?" in such a political climate is no different from shouting "Mad Dog" in a rally of Gaddafi supporters. It's asking for trouble.

We always assumed that when the country was seeking to restore its diamond exports, it actually wanted a stamp of approval. Now the impression among those involved is that the top officials don't want to be KP OK. Once orderly, legal exports start, a major revenue source will dry up. Without illegal exports, the greasing and kickbacks won't find their way into retirement funds of leading political figures or the police and army officers that these funds help ensure their loyalty to the ruling regime.

There is no telling how, when or where the current wave of change will stop. We can only hope that if it hits Zimbabwe, Turkey or the UAE, it will result not only in improved living conditions for the people, but also in the ability to trade and develop economies that benefit the people. That is a requirement for developing a diamond business. In the words of Oscar Wilde, “When liberty comes with hands dabbled in blood it is hard to shake hands with her.”

Have a safe and peaceful week.