Are Diamond Prices Really Rising?

Al Cook says diamond prices are starting to rise. Is he right?

"In the last few months, we've seen the price stabilize and begin to grow," said the De Beers Group CEO said in Beijing last week.

The headline numbers still look like a market in retreat.

De Beers' average realized rough-diamond price fell 32% in the first half of 2026, to $105 per carat. Its rough-diamond price index fell 16%.

But there is some evidence to suggest the decline has slowed.

Cook attributed that positive move to two familiar forces - increased demand and decreased supply.

"We're seeing demand for natural diamonds increase, particularly in the United States, particularly in India," he said.

"We're seeing that now increase in 2025 and in the first half of 2026. We're also seeing supply fall. Diamonds are getting rarer.

"Mines are closing because they're getting older. So we're seeing the supply fall by more than 10% at the moment.

"Those two things together have led to a stabilization in price and make us very confident in the long term."

So let's test those claims.

1. "We're seeing demand for natural diamonds increase, particularly in the United States, particularly in India."

De Beers says global natural diamond jewelry demand returned to growth in 2025. Its latest research describes India as a "particularly bright spot," while US natural diamonds remained the most desired luxury jewelry product.

But the recovery is uneven. De Beers accepts that US growth is concentrated in higher-value jewelry. Lower-priced categories remain under pressure from lab growns and global finished diamond jewelry sales were still flat year on year in H1 2026.

2. "We're seeing that now increase in 2025 and in the first half of 2026. We're also seeing supply fall. Diamonds are getting rarer."

Yes, there are signs that the improvement continued into 2026 rather than being confined to 2025. US independent jewelers recorded natural diamond sales growth in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026., De Beers described Indian demand as robust in H1.

But increased activity doesn't necessarily translate into increased value. De Beers' rough-diamond sales volumes rose 13% in H1 2026, to 12.4 million carats, but its average realized price fell 32%, to $105 per carat. De Beers sold more diamonds, but the market was still paying substantially less for them.

Is it fair to say diamonds are getting rarer? Global production may be falling, but that's not the same as physically scarcity. De Beers' own H1 2026 production actually rose 46%, to 14.9 million carats. That was partly because of higher-grade ore at Jwaneng and Gahcho Kue, in Botswana.

3. "Mines are closing because they're getting older. So we're seeing the supply fall by more than 10% at the moment.

Mines are indeed closing, or reducing output. But not just  because they're getting older, like Diavik, in Canada. Nearby Ekati is closing prematurely because its owner ran out of money and couldn't find a buyer. Finsch and Ekapa, in South Africa, have closed because of weak demand, ditto Kao, in Lesotho, and Koidu, Sierra Leone

Is supply falling by more than 10%? Global rough diamond production fell about 8% in 2025, from 107.9 million to 98.8 million carats, according to Kimberely Process. There's convincing evidence of a longer-term contraction in mine supply, but the available production data doesn't support Cook's claim that supply is currently falling by more than 10%. The direction is right; the number is harder to substantiate.

 4. "Those two things together have led to a stabilization in price and make us very confident in the long term."

There is evidence of stabilization in rough diamonds. De Beers' rough price index, benchmarked at 100 in December 2006, rose 1% in Q2 2026, to 69, after falling from 83 in Q2 2025. The company described pricing as relatively stable in H1. Paul Rowley, De Beers' diamond-trading chief, also said prices had stabilized, with prices for diamonds above two carats beginning to increase significantly.

But stabilization is not yet evident across the polished market. IDEX's September data showed price decreases continuing to outnumber increases, particularly for 0.70 to 1.99-carat rounds. De Beers' H1 realized price was still 32% lower year on year. Long-term confidence is therefore a judgment about where the market is going, not something current prices can establish.

Numbers are malleable. An optimist can use them to shape a "glass half full story" and a pessimist can use the same figures to craft a "glass half empty" narrative. The numbers themselves don't lie, but  they are open to multiple interpretations.

Sentiment is something else entirely. And that's what Cook is tapping into here. In researching this piece I waded through far more stats than any reader needs, pointing in a variety of directions. Helpful, and not so helpful.

The bottom line is that Cook, a man who clearly has his finger on the industry's pulse, presents a credible case that the market is indeed turning a corner.

But there is a difference between a market that has stopped deteriorating and one that has actually started to recover.

Have a fabulous weekend.