Despite Relatively Strong Holiday Start, Weekly Retail Sales Decline

Despite a relatively strong start to the holiday season on Black Friday (November 25), retail chain stores actually saw a 0.7 percent decline in sales for the week ending November 26, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

On a year-over-year basis, the week's sales pace rose by 5.1 percent. The week's results were the strongest year-over-year performance since June 12 2004.

According to the ICSC, qualitatively, Black Friday sales were relatively good, even though they occurred with heavy promotional activity and extended store hours relative to last year. However, sales and customer traffic softened on Saturday.

Home and lifestyle goods, juniors and intimate apparel were all cited as relatively strong performers during the post-Thanksgiving selling period. Conforming to expectations, electronic gadget sales also got off to a good start.

Chain store sales rose by 4.4 percent in October following a 4.0 percent increase in September, based on ICSC's tally of 71 chains. The ICSC expects that November sales will grow by 3.5 to 4 percent. November-December sales are expected to grow by 3 to 3.5 percent.

“The traditional holiday shopping season is now underway with last week's sales. Although there was considerable hype and huge crowds, the initial 'spending blitz' on Black Friday and the sales on the days immediately following should not be used as a bellwether for the season as a whole,” said Michael P. Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

“The industry has several key markers of success ahead — which should not be lost sight of. The first of these, which is already upon us, is how well retailers withstand the ‘new traditional lull’ in sales during the two weeks following Thanksgiving,” Niemira added.